China’s exports posted a surprise double-digit increase in March, offering temporary relief to an economy under pressure from rising global trade frictions and weak domestic demand. Official customs data released Monday showed a 12.4 percent year-on-year rise in exports, the strongest growth since October and well ahead of market expectations. However, imports contracted by 4.3 percent, highlighting the persistence of soft consumption within China.
The export spike appears to reflect accelerated overseas shipments, as businesses rush to get goods out of the country before steep U.S. tariffs take full effect. Analysts caution that the current momentum is unlikely to last, given escalating trade barriers and continued uncertainty over international supply chains.
Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at a financial research firm, said that exports are likely to lose steam in the months ahead due to the sweeping U.S. import taxes. He warned of near-term disruptions in supply chains, potential product shortages in the U.S., and a fresh wave of inflationary pressures. Even for companies seeking to relocate production lines, the process remains slow and capital-intensive.
Earlier this year, China had already seen a marked slowdown in trade. In January and February combined, exports edged up only 2.3 percent—one of the weakest performances since early 2024—while imports dropped 8.4 percent year-on-year.
Beijing has set an ambitious full-year GDP growth target of “around 5 percent,” but analysts note that achieving this goal is becoming increasingly difficult. The trade conflict with Washington has intensified since the beginning of the year, when U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a new round of tariffs. These now total 145 percent on all Chinese imports, with a 20 percent penalty specifically linked to alleged involvement in the fentanyl trade.
In retaliation, Beijing has imposed its own rounds of tariffs, including broad-based levies of up to 125 percent and targeted measures on certain U.S. goods.
Speaking at a news briefing, Wang Lingjun, deputy head of China’s customs authority, criticized what he described as the U.S.’s excessive use of trade penalties. He reiterated Beijing’s call for dialogue, stating that China would enforce all announced countermeasures in accordance with law while continuing to expand trade partnerships globally.
Last week, Washington offered partial relief by exempting some electronics—including smartphones, computer chips, solar cells, and storage devices—from reciprocal tariffs. However, the 20 percent tariff linked to synthetic opioid concerns remains in place.
China’s Ministry of Commerce welcomed the exemptions but characterized them as minor and urged the U.S. to cancel the remaining tariffs entirely.
Despite tensions, China’s exports to the U.S. still rose 9.1 percent in March compared to a year earlier, while imports from the U.S. dropped 9.5 percent. The U.S. remains China’s largest single-country trading partner, accounting for about 10 percent of its overall trade.
China also reported strong trade growth with Southeast Asia and Europe. Shipments to ASEAN nations rose 11.6 percent, with exports to Vietnam surging nearly 19 percent. Imports from the region climbed 9.8 percent. Exports to the European Union increased by 10.3 percent, while imports from Europe declined 7.5 percent.
Commodity trade figures were mixed. Iron ore imports fell 6.7 percent to a 12-month low, and soybean imports dropped nearly 37 percent—the lowest level since 2008. However, semiconductor and crude oil imports increased by 11.2 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, exports of semiconductors and rare earth materials saw year-on-year gains of over 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively.
Calls are growing for Beijing to ramp up domestic stimulus in response to weakening consumption and the ongoing real estate slump. Inflation remains subdued, with consumer prices contracting for two consecutive months and producer prices declining for nearly two and a half years straight.
Major investment banks have lowered their expectations for China’s 2025 growth. Goldman Sachs most recently cut its projection to 4.0 percent, citing the disruptive effects of elevated U.S. tariffs. The firm expects more easing measures from Beijing but doubts they will be enough to fully counterbalance the economic damage.
China will release its first-quarter GDP results this week, offering a clearer view of the impact of the trade war and domestic slowdown. A key meeting of the Politburo, the country’s top policymaking body, is scheduled for later this month, where officials are expected to unveil new initiatives aimed at reviving consumption and stabilizing growth.